Kevin Kindall, The Associate of Alliance Risk Group, delivers a speech at the forum on world internet & modern logistics of the 3rd World Emerging Industries Summit (WEIS 2015)

Disruptive Technology

A technological innovation that either enhances an existing product or service, or creates a new marketplace altogether

Produces a very clear structural change in the market

Has the potential to create vast amounts of wealth

Examples

Hydraulic fracturing

Solar charged electric vehicles (potential disruptive tech.)

2007 Oil Price Environment

“Peak Oil” concern

$200/bbl Goldman Sachs price forecast

US Domestic Oil Production

2014 Oil Market

Ongoing production boom

Significant price decline (benefitting consumers everywhere)

US inventories at 80 year high

Key point:  high price environment  provided clear economic incentives to innovate and experiment

Solar Charged Electric Vehicle

Electric vehicle + solar array + battery/charging station

Self contained

Off-grid (no need to build or expand power plants)

Ford Motor / SunPower “Drive Green for Life”

Target market:  US commuters

Economics not quite there:  need breakthrough in battery technology, but there may be a bigger market elsewhere…

PJM West Hub Hourly Prices

Commercial Battery Problem

Power prices are volatile because commercial amounts of electricity cannot be stored

Economics are compelling, but thus far no one has been able to create a workable solution

Chemistry is hard!!!

Concluding Thoughts

Identify and assess opportunity

Properly value contracts, deals, etc.

Hedge